By Simpson Global Media News Desk
Introduction
An estimated 36.29 million Nigerians are facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse, even as rice prices declined sharply in September, highlighting the continuing gap between agricultural market improvements and the ability of households to afford sufficient food.
The figures are contained in the September 2026 edition of the Food Security Monitor published by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA). The report puts Nigeria’s affected population at 36,289,939, representing 16.65 per cent of the population covered by its assessment. Nigeria recorded the highest absolute number of people facing severe food insecurity among the 17 African countries monitored. (The Guardian, October 19, 2026; AGRA Food Security Monitor)
The assessment also shows that Nigeria’s food-insecure population remained unchanged from August, suggesting that the latest movement in commodity prices has not yet translated into a measurable improvement in the overall number of people facing severe difficulty accessing food.
One of the more encouraging developments was the fall in rice prices. The report recorded an 18.3 per cent month-on-month decline in Nigeria’s rice price in US dollar terms, bringing it to $376 per metric tonne in September. At the same time, the prices of other important grains, including millet and sorghum, increased, leaving households exposed to different pressures depending on their food choices and local markets. (The Guardian)
The findings come as the Federal Government reiterates its commitment to increasing domestic production, improving storage, expanding irrigation, supporting smallholder farmers and reducing post-harvest losses. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security reported that the sector grew by 4.39 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, according to figures it attributed to the National Bureau of Statistics. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
The contrast between agricultural growth and persistent food insecurity presents a central challenge for policymakers: increasing production is important, but food must also reach consumers at prices they can afford. Farmers need profitable markets, while households need reliable access to nutritious meals.
Nigeria remains at the top of the monitored food-insecurity figures
AGRA’s September Food Security Monitor places Nigeria among the countries facing significant food-access challenges across the African markets included in its assessment.
The report’s estimate of 36,289,939 people experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse represents 16.65 per cent of the population analysed. The total was unchanged from August, according to The Guardian’s account of the report. (The Guardian)
The figure is significant because food insecurity affects more than the availability of crops in markets. A household may live in an area where food is available but still struggle to buy enough because of low income, unemployment, displacement, high transport costs or the rising cost of other essential expenses.
The number should also be understood within the limits of the assessment. It is an estimate based on the population covered by the monitoring exercise and the food-security measures used by AGRA. It should not be interpreted as a direct count of every Nigerian who missed a meal or as evidence that all affected people are experiencing identical circumstances.
Nevertheless, the scale of the estimate highlights the difficulty of ensuring that agricultural production and food distribution translate into dependable access to meals.
For farmers, the situation raises questions about market access, input affordability and the returns they receive for their harvests. For traders and food processors, it points to the importance of dependable supplies and efficient logistics. For households, it means that even a decline in the price of one staple may not be enough to ease the overall pressure on food budgets.
The report identifies insecurity, high fuel and transport costs, elevated staple-food prices and reduced household incomes among the factors limiting food access, particularly in northern Nigeria. It also indicates that crisis conditions are expected to persist across much of the region through January 2027, with emergency-level food insecurity continuing in inaccessible, conflict-affected parts of Borno State. (The Guardian)
These overlapping challenges mean that food security requires more than an increase in the quantity of crops harvested. It also depends on whether farmers can reach their fields, whether produce can travel safely to markets and whether consumers have enough purchasing power to obtain it.
Falling rice prices offer some relief
Rice is one of Nigeria’s major staple foods, consumed in households across different regions and used by restaurants, food vendors, caterers and processors.
The September report recorded an 18.3 per cent month-on-month decline in the country’s rice price in US dollar terms, bringing it to $376 per metric tonne. AGRA’s findings, as reported by The Guardian, described this as the lowest rice price among the African markets monitored in the assessment. (The Guardian)
A fall of that size can create opportunities for consumers and businesses, particularly if it is reflected in the prices paid by households and food retailers. Lower wholesale prices may reduce the cost of obtaining rice for traders and processors, potentially giving them room to adjust selling prices or improve their margins.
However, the reported price is expressed in US dollars per metric tonne. It should not be treated as the price of a bag of rice in a Nigerian market or as proof that every consumer has experienced an 18.3 per cent reduction in the cost of purchasing rice.
Retail prices can differ according to location, quality, brand, packaging, transport costs, market competition and the number of intermediaries between producers and consumers. Currency movements can also affect the relationship between prices reported in dollars and the naira prices encountered by local buyers.
For a household in a rural community, the price of rice may depend on local production and the cost of transporting supplies from a nearby market. In a major city, the retail price may reflect storage, distribution, packaging and other operating expenses.
The key question is whether the decline at the monitored market level will continue and pass through to consumers.
If the reduction is sustained and reaches retail markets, it could help households that depend heavily on rice. It may also support food businesses that purchase the commodity in large quantities.
But the decline alone does not resolve the broader food-security problem. Families must purchase other staples, vegetables, protein sources and essential household items. A reduction in rice prices can be outweighed by increases in other food costs or by insufficient income.
Other staple grains are moving in the opposite direction
The September report presents a mixed picture of Nigeria’s staple-food markets.
While rice prices declined, the average maize price increased by 15.1 per cent over six months. The report also said maize remained 14.3 per cent below its level a year earlier. Millet prices rose by 7.8 per cent in September to ₦511.70 per kilogramme, while sorghum increased by 8.6 per cent month-on-month to ₦476.78 per kilogramme. (The Guardian)
Sorghum showed particularly strong increases over longer periods. Its price was reported to be 47.5 per cent higher than six months earlier and 17.7 per cent above its September 2025 level. These movements indicate that pressure on food affordability differs from one commodity to another.
Maize, millet and sorghum are important in household diets and livestock-related value chains. They are used in a range of foods, including porridges, traditional meals and processed products. Their market prices can also influence the cost of animal feed and other agricultural activities.
When the cost of these grains rises, consumers may try to substitute one staple for another. But substitution is not always possible or affordable. Families have different dietary preferences, and the availability of alternatives can vary between regions.
Food processors and livestock producers may also face higher costs when grain prices rise. Depending on the product and the degree of competition in the market, some of these costs may be passed on to consumers.
The different movements in grain prices demonstrate why food affordability cannot be assessed through a single commodity. Lower rice prices may be welcome, but the overall position of households will depend on the prices of the foods they actually buy and the income available to pay for them.
What crisis-level food insecurity means
Food insecurity is not simply a question of whether a market has enough food on its shelves. It concerns people’s ability to obtain food regularly and meet their dietary needs.
In food-security assessments that use the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, Phase 3 is generally described as “Crisis.” Households in this category may face significant food-consumption gaps or be forced to adopt damaging coping strategies to meet basic needs. More severe classifications describe progressively more serious conditions.
AGRA’s headline figure covers people experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse, according to the measure described in its Food Security Monitor. The reported number should therefore be understood as a measure of serious food-access difficulties, rather than a count of all people who may be experiencing any degree of food insecurity. (AGRA Food Security Monitor; The Guardian)
Households can enter a food crisis for different reasons. A family may lose income, face higher food prices, be displaced by violence or lose access to farmland. A farming household may produce less because of poor weather, expensive inputs or insecurity, reducing both the food it can consume and the income it earns from selling surplus produce.
In some cases, families may cope by reducing meal sizes, eating less frequently or buying cheaper foods with lower nutritional value. Others may sell productive assets, borrow money or withdraw children from school to manage financial pressure. Such responses can create longer-term difficulties even after immediate food supplies improve.
These examples explain why food-security monitoring considers access and household circumstances as well as market supply. They are not claims that every household included in the Nigerian estimate has adopted the same coping strategy.
The persistence of a large crisis-level population despite changes in commodity prices suggests that responses must address several underlying causes at the same time.
Insecurity continues to disrupt food production and distribution
Security remains one of the major constraints on agriculture in parts of northern Nigeria.
The September Food Security Monitor, as reported by The Guardian, identifies insecurity and restricted access in conflict-affected areas as major concerns. It highlights emergency-level food insecurity in inaccessible parts of Borno State and anticipates continued crisis conditions across much of northern Nigeria through January 2027. (The Guardian)
Agriculture depends on farmers being able to reach their land, obtain inputs, hire labour, harvest crops and transport produce to buyers. Where violence or threats make movement unsafe, those activities can become difficult or impossible.
Farmers may reduce the area they cultivate if they cannot work their fields safely. They may also avoid distant markets, delay harvesting or sell produce through fewer available trading channels. Insecurity can disrupt the movement of fertiliser, seeds, machinery and other supplies into farming communities.
These disruptions can affect consumers far beyond the locations where violence occurs. When a production area supplies traders and processors in other states, reduced output or restricted transport can affect availability and prices along the wider supply chain.
Displacement adds another layer of difficulty. Families who leave their homes may lose access to farmland, livestock, equipment and stored food. They may also need to rely on humanitarian assistance or informal support while trying to establish new sources of income.
For host communities, an increase in the number of people seeking food, housing and other necessities can place additional pressure on local resources.
Addressing these challenges requires coordination between security agencies, state governments, agricultural authorities and humanitarian organisations. Protecting farmers and transport routes can help restore access to production and markets, but assistance must be designed around the specific conditions in each affected area.
Security measures alone cannot resolve all food insecurity. Farmers also need access to seeds, fertiliser, financing, equipment and reliable buyers. Likewise, improving agricultural output will not be enough if households remain unable to reach markets or afford food.
High fuel and transport costs affect the price of food
Transport connects farmers to processors, wholesalers, retailers and consumers. When moving produce becomes expensive, the cost can accumulate across the supply chain.
A farmer may pay to transport harvested crops from a rural area to a collection centre. A trader may then pay for storage and another journey to a wholesale market. Retailers may face additional expenses moving food to neighbourhood shops or stalls.
Fuel prices influence many of these activities, although the precise effect depends on the vehicle, route, distance, availability of alternative transport and the structure of the market.
Higher logistics costs can be particularly difficult for farmers operating on thin margins. If the price offered by buyers does not cover production and transportation expenses, some producers may reduce sales or leave part of their harvest unmarketed.
At the consumer end, retailers may increase prices to cover higher costs. In other circumstances, they may absorb some of the increase, reducing their margins. The outcome depends on competition and the ability of buyers and sellers to negotiate.
The AGRA findings identify fuel and transport costs among the factors affecting food access in Nigeria. (The Guardian)
Improving rural roads, storage facilities and the efficiency of transport networks could help reduce avoidable costs and losses. Better aggregation systems can also allow farmers to combine produce from several holdings, potentially making transport more efficient.
Such improvements need investment and maintenance. A road that becomes unusable during the rainy season, for example, can undermine the benefits of better production in a farming community.
The goal is to ensure that food can move from production areas to consumers with fewer delays, lower losses and more predictable costs.
Fertiliser prices raise concerns for future harvests
The cost of agricultural inputs is another pressure highlighted in the September assessment.
According to The Guardian’s account of AGRA’s report, global fertiliser markets remained firm during September, with phosphate fertilisers recording further increases and urea recovering after earlier declines. The report noted that immediate supply shortages had been limited by existing inventories, advance purchases and domestic production, while warning that input costs could threaten affordability. (The Guardian)
Fertiliser is important for maintaining soil fertility and supporting crop yields, although the appropriate quantity and type depend on the crop, soil condition, climate and farming practices.
When prices rise sharply, farmers may struggle to buy the amount they need at the right time. Some may reduce application rates, delay purchases or switch to crops that require fewer purchased inputs.
Those decisions may be understandable in the face of limited cash, but they can affect yields and profitability. The outcome is not uniform: some farmers may use organic inputs or improved soil-management practices, while others may have limited alternatives.
Higher fertiliser costs can also influence decisions before planting. Farmers who cannot estimate whether they will recover their investment may reduce the area they cultivate or avoid expanding production.
The effect may become visible only after a growing season, meaning that current input prices can influence future supplies rather than only the food available in markets today.
Access to affordable inputs therefore has implications for both production and food affordability. Support programmes must be designed carefully to reach intended farmers, provide suitable products and avoid creating inefficiencies in distribution.
Better soil testing, extension services and advice on the appropriate use of fertiliser can help farmers make informed decisions. However, these services need to be accessible to smallholders, including those in remote communities.
Agricultural growth has not eliminated food-access problems
The Federal Government has presented recent agricultural growth as evidence of progress in the sector.
In its statement for World Food Day 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security said agriculture grew by 4.39 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, while crop production expanded by 3.66 per cent. The ministry attributed the figures to the National Bureau of Statistics. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
The ministry also reported that the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket had supported smallholder farmers to produce 2.5 million metric tonnes of staple foods over four farming seasons. It said annual domestic wheat production had risen to approximately 420,000 metric tonnes, compared with a previous baseline of 120,000 metric tonnes. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
These figures reflect the government’s account of developments in agricultural production and support programmes. They do not, on their own, establish how much the interventions have reduced food insecurity or how benefits are distributed among households.
Economic growth in a sector can coexist with serious hardship among particular groups. Production may expand in one commodity or region while insecurity, high costs or weak market access continue to affect another.
Even where total output rises, consumers may struggle if their incomes do not keep pace with prices. Farmers themselves may experience food insecurity if production costs are high, harvests are uncertain or they must sell much of what they produce to meet debts and other expenses.
The relationship between output and food security therefore depends on several factors: which crops are produced, where they are grown, how they are distributed, what they cost to buy and how much income households have.
The latest AGRA findings underline the importance of examining those outcomes alongside agricultural growth statistics.
Government plans to reduce post-harvest losses
The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security says its approach includes improving storage and cold-chain facilities to reduce post-harvest losses. In its World Food Day statement, the ministry said it was targeting a reduction in such losses from 40 per cent to below 20 per cent. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
Post-harvest losses occur when crops are damaged, spoiled or otherwise become unsuitable for sale or consumption after harvesting. Causes can include inadequate drying, poor storage, pests, insufficient refrigeration, delays in transport and weak handling practices.
Reducing losses can help make more of the food already produced available for sale or consumption. It can also improve farmers’ earnings if a larger share of their harvest reaches the market in acceptable condition.
Different crops require different storage methods. Grain may need appropriate drying, protection from moisture and pest control, while perishable products such as vegetables, fish and some fruits may require cold storage and rapid transport.
Investment in facilities must therefore be matched to local production patterns and the needs of farmers and traders. A storage facility that is too distant, too expensive to use or poorly maintained may deliver limited benefits.
Farmers also need information about storage practices, grading and quality standards. Traders and processors need reliable access to the facilities and transport systems required to move products efficiently.
If storage improvements succeed, they could reduce waste and help moderate seasonal shortages. But their effect on retail prices will depend on other factors, including production volumes, energy costs, competition and the extent to which savings are passed through the supply chain.
Dry-season farming and irrigation
The government has also identified dry-season farming and expanded irrigation as part of its approach to improving food availability.
Irrigation can allow farmers to cultivate crops when rainfall is limited, potentially increasing the number of production cycles and reducing dependence on seasonal precipitation. It may also help stabilise supplies when weather conditions disrupt rain-fed agriculture.
However, irrigation requires reliable water sources, suitable equipment, maintenance and effective management. Farmers may need access to pumps, energy, canals or other infrastructure, depending on the system used.
The costs of operating irrigation systems can be a barrier for smallholders, particularly where fuel or electricity is expensive. Water availability must also be managed responsibly to avoid damaging ecosystems or undermining future production.
Dry-season cultivation can create opportunities for vegetables, rice and other crops, but its benefits depend on the suitability of land and water resources and the existence of buyers for the resulting harvest.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has said it is promoting climate-smart agriculture and expanding irrigation as part of its food-security strategy. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
For such measures to make a lasting difference, infrastructure should be supported by extension services, financing, reliable input supplies and market access.
Financing smallholder farmers
Smallholder farmers play a major role in Nigeria’s agricultural system, but many face difficulties obtaining affordable credit.
Farming requires spending money before revenue is earned. Producers may need to purchase seeds, fertiliser, chemicals, equipment or labour months before their crops are ready for sale.
Where credit is unavailable or expensive, farmers may plant less land than they could manage or use fewer inputs than their crops require. They may also be forced to sell their produce immediately after harvest, when local supply is high and prices may be less favourable.
Affordable financing can help farmers invest in production and improve their ability to manage seasonal expenses. Yet credit alone is not sufficient. Farmers need reasonable confidence that they can harvest successfully and sell their produce at a price that covers costs.
The federal ministry has identified the repositioning of the Bank of Agriculture for more affordable financing as one of its priorities. It has also highlighted agricultural insurance and pest surveillance as part of its broader strategy. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
Effective agricultural finance should take account of the risks farmers face. Repayment arrangements that ignore crop cycles or local production conditions can place borrowers under pressure.
Insurance may help protect farmers against certain losses, depending on the policy and the events covered. However, farmers must understand the terms, exclusions and claims procedures, while insurers need reliable ways to assess losses.
Combining appropriate credit, insurance, extension support and access to markets can provide a stronger foundation than treating finance as a standalone intervention.
Regional trade and distribution opportunities
The September report also identified opportunities to improve trade and distribution networks.
The Guardian reported that Nigeria had reduced the processing time for African Continental Free Trade Area Certificates of Origin from more than five days to 24 hours through digitisation and automation of registration, verification and certification procedures. The report also said Nigeria had resolved eight non-tariff barrier cases. (The Guardian)
Certificates of Origin are used to establish where goods originate for purposes that can include preferential trade arrangements. Faster processing may help eligible businesses complete documentation more efficiently, although the benefit depends on meeting the relevant requirements and the availability of buyers and transport.
The report further noted that the African Export-Import Bank and the Africa Trading and Distribution Company signed a $500 million global credit facility in September to strengthen trade, logistics and distribution networks, with initial operations planned in Nigeria, Egypt, Malawi and Zimbabwe. (The Guardian)
The facility represents a potential source of financing for trade-related activities; it should not be interpreted as $500 million already disbursed to Nigerian farmers or as a direct food subsidy.
For agriculture, better distribution infrastructure can help connect producers with larger markets, improve the movement of goods and support processing and storage. Regional trade can also provide additional outlets when domestic demand is weak or when particular markets have temporary shortages.
However, trade cannot replace the need to strengthen domestic production and food access. Export opportunities must be developed in ways that support farmers and businesses while taking account of local availability, market conditions and applicable regulations.
What farmers need from policy implementation
The latest food-security findings suggest that policy must address the practical conditions under which farmers operate.
Farmers need access to suitable seeds, fertiliser and equipment at prices they can afford. They need land and water resources that can be used safely and productively, as well as reliable advice on crop management and soil health.
They also need routes to market. Where roads are poor, transport is expensive or insecurity restricts movement, improved yields may not produce the expected income.
Storage and processing can reduce waste and allow more value to be retained locally. Access to finance can help producers manage seasonal costs, while insurance and other risk-management tools may reduce exposure to some shocks.
These interventions are most effective when coordinated. For example, distributing improved seeds without ensuring that farmers can obtain other necessary inputs or sell their harvests may limit the benefits of the programme.
Similarly, providing equipment without maintenance, training and access to spare parts can lead to machinery being underused.
The government’s stated priorities include mechanisation, digital extension services, soil mapping, irrigation, storage, financing and agricultural insurance. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
The important test will be whether these programmes reach farmers consistently and produce measurable improvements in yields, incomes and food availability.
Transparent reporting can help the public assess progress. Information on the number of farmers reached, the support delivered, the locations covered and the outcomes achieved would make it easier to distinguish announced targets from completed work.
The importance of household purchasing power
Food insecurity is also an income problem.
Even when agricultural production improves, a household with insufficient income may be unable to buy enough food. Families must balance food purchases against housing, transport, healthcare, education, electricity and other necessities.
When food prices rise faster than earnings, households may spend a larger share of their budgets on basic meals and have less money available for other essential needs.
The reverse is also true: falling prices can improve food access if incomes remain stable and the reductions reach consumers. But a decline in a wholesale commodity price may not help a household immediately if local retail prices remain high or if the family has lost its source of income.
The September report’s combination of falling rice prices and rising prices for other grains illustrates this complexity. Consumers do not buy a single commodity in isolation, and their choices depend on price, availability, cultural preferences, household size and nutritional needs.
A durable improvement in food security therefore requires both a productive agricultural sector and an economy in which households can afford the food available.
Employment, reliable earnings, social protection and targeted assistance can complement agricultural interventions, particularly for people who cannot immediately benefit from higher farm output.
In conflict-affected communities, emergency food assistance may remain necessary while longer-term efforts restore farming, livelihoods and market access.
What to watch in the coming months
Several indicators will be important in assessing whether Nigeria’s food-security situation improves.
The first is the number of people estimated to be experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse. A decline in this figure would suggest an improvement in access to food among the population covered by the assessment, although the reasons for the change would still need to be examined.
The second is the movement of prices across several staple commodities. Rice prices are important, but the trends in maize, millet, sorghum and other foods will also affect household budgets and livestock-related costs.
The third is the affordability of agricultural inputs. If fertiliser, fuel and transport costs remain high, farmers may face difficult choices about planting and production in subsequent seasons.
Security developments will also matter. Improved access to farmland and markets in conflict-affected areas could support production and trade, while further disruption could undermine progress.
Finally, the implementation of government programmes should be monitored through verifiable outcomes rather than announcements alone. Measures such as improved storage, functioning irrigation systems, access to affordable finance and reduced post-harvest losses can contribute to food security when they reach intended beneficiaries and are maintained over time.
AGRA’s September findings provide a warning that the challenge remains substantial. The next assessments will help show whether recent market movements are part of a sustained improvement or temporary changes within a difficult food-security environment.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s food-security situation presents a mixed picture. The September 2026 Food Security Monitor estimates that 36.29 million people are facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse, while rice prices recorded a substantial decline. Yet maize, millet and sorghum prices have moved differently, and insecurity, high distribution costs, reduced incomes and expensive farm inputs continue to constrain access to food. (The Guardian)
The government has reported growth in the agricultural sector and highlighted programmes intended to increase production, expand irrigation, improve mechanisation, strengthen storage and provide support to smallholder farmers. These measures could help address important weaknesses in the food system, but their impact will depend on implementation, access and measurable results. (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security)
For farmers, the priorities include affordable inputs, secure access to farmland, reliable transport, suitable storage, financing and markets that provide a fair return. For consumers, the priority is to ensure that food is available at prices their household budgets can sustain. For policymakers, the task is to connect these objectives through coordinated investment and effective delivery.
The fall in rice prices is a positive market signal, but it should not be mistaken for a resolution of the wider crisis. Progress will require improvements that reach beyond a single commodity and help households access sufficient, safe and nutritious food consistently.
The central challenge is no longer simply how to produce more food, but how to ensure that increased production, lower losses and better distribution translate into affordable meals and more secure livelihoods for Nigerians.
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