By Simpson Global Media News Desk
Farmers face a new agricultural reality
Nigeria’s agricultural sector is facing growing pressure from climate change as increasingly unpredictable weather patterns disrupt planting calendars, reduce yields and expose farmers to losses running into billions of naira.
Farmers and agricultural experts say irregular rainfall, prolonged dry spells, flooding, rising temperatures, pests and crop diseases are making agricultural production more difficult and expensive, while also discouraging investment in food production.
The warning comes at a critical time for Nigeria, where millions of households depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for food, employment and income.
A report published on October 7 by Vanguard said farmers across different parts of the country were increasingly struggling to predict when rainfall would begin, how long it would last and whether crops would receive enough water to reach harvest.
The changing weather conditions are creating a difficult situation in which farmers can face losses whether rainfall is insufficient or excessive.
Too little rain can prevent seeds from germinating and crops from developing properly, while heavy rainfall can cause flooding, wash away soil nutrients and damage crops and farm infrastructure.
For farmers who have traditionally depended on established seasonal patterns, the uncertainty is making decisions about when and what to plant considerably more difficult.
Rainfall patterns becoming less predictable
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has warned that rainfall patterns vary considerably across the country and that farmers need reliable climate information when making agricultural decisions.
NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction projected variable rainfall patterns, including differences in the timing of rainfall onset and cessation across states. It also warned of dry spells and warmer-than-average temperatures in many areas.
The agency’s agricultural meteorology services are specifically designed to provide farmers with information that can assist with planting, harvesting and other farm-management decisions.
NiMet says its agricultural products include information on rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, growing conditions and crop calendars, all of which can help farmers reduce weather-related risks.
But getting that information to farmers in remote communities remains a challenge.
The All Farmers Association of Nigeria has raised concerns that many rural farmers do not receive weather information early enough to make effective decisions.
AFAN chairman Dr Nkechi Okafor said farmers who previously relied on relatively predictable planting seasons can no longer depend on established calendars in the same way.
She said irregular rainfall was causing farmers to plant after early rains only to encounter prolonged dry spells afterwards.
Billions of naira at risk
The financial consequences are becoming increasingly serious.
According to farmers interviewed by Vanguard, climate-related shocks are resulting in substantial losses across different agricultural value chains.
Jerry Olanrenwaju, Chief Farmer and Lead of JetFarmsNG, said some farmers within his network had recorded losses of between 30 and 40 per cent of expected yields in some seasons.
He explained that a farmer investing between N500,000 and N800,000 per hectare could lose hundreds of thousands of naira when adverse weather conditions severely affect production.
The risks are not restricted to one crop.
Ginger, turmeric and garlic can be affected when rainfall patterns interfere with germination and root development, while excessive moisture can increase the risk of fungal diseases.
Rice production is also vulnerable because the crop requires adequate and appropriately timed water.
Root and tuber crops can similarly suffer when rainfall patterns change significantly during important stages of development.
This means that climate risk is not simply an environmental issue. It is increasingly becoming a business and investment issue for farmers, processors, traders, lenders and other participants in Nigeria’s agricultural economy.
Some farmers losing up to half their expected harvest
The experience of farmers in Kaduna and other parts of the country further illustrates the scale of the challenge.
Sandra Victor-Gwafan, co-founder of DeBranch Farmers Limited, said some farmers had previously lost between 30 and 50 per cent of expected harvests because of flooding and prolonged dry spells.
The company works mainly with rice out-growers and has responded by increasing farmer sensitisation, drainage planning, coordinated mechanisation and staggered planting.
Victor-Gwafan said farmers were becoming increasingly uncertain about when to begin planting because early rainfall can suddenly stop while heavy rainfall can arrive later than expected.
The financial implications can be severe for smallholder farmers who have already borrowed money or spent their savings on seeds, fertiliser, labour, land preparation and other inputs.
A failed harvest therefore does not only mean less food. It can also mean unpaid loans, reduced household income, inability to finance the next planting season and, in some cases, withdrawal from farming altogether.
Irrigation becomes increasingly important
One of the clearest solutions being advocated by farmers and experts is greater investment in irrigation.
Rain-fed agriculture remains dominant across much of Nigeria. That makes farmers particularly vulnerable when rainfall becomes unreliable.
AFAN has called for increased irrigation infrastructure to reduce dependence on rainfall and make year-round farming more viable.
A vegetable farmer in Osun State told Vanguard that he now plans for irrigation before planting because he cannot rely entirely on rainfall.
His approach is simple: if the rain arrives, it supplements the irrigation system; if it does not, the farm still has a source of water.
Such an approach could become increasingly important as weather patterns continue to change.
However, irrigation infrastructure requires investment in water sources, pumps, storage systems, energy and distribution networks.
For smallholder farmers, the cost can be prohibitive without affordable financing, cooperative arrangements or government and private-sector support.
Northern farmers face drought and desertification
The impact of climate change is not uniform across Nigeria.
In northern states, farmers face increasing concerns about prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and desertification.
NiMet’s 2026 climate prediction identified several areas where dry spells could affect agricultural activity. The agency forecast periods of significant dryness during different parts of the year, with implications for crop development and water availability.
Farmers in the northern belt are particularly exposed because many depend on seasonal rainfall while operating in environments where water resources can already be limited.
Longer dry periods can increase pressure on livestock, reduce pasture availability and raise competition for water.
The consequences can extend beyond individual farms into food markets.
When agricultural production declines, supplies of staple crops can tighten, potentially increasing prices for consumers.
Flooding presents the opposite threat
While some farmers struggle with drought, others face excessive rainfall and flooding.
In central and southern Nigeria, heavy rainfall can destroy farms, wash away topsoil and damage roads, bridges, irrigation infrastructure and storage facilities.
Flooding can also leave farmland waterlogged, making it difficult for farmers to plant or harvest.
Prof Babatunde Bolaji Bernard, an environmental expert cited by Vanguard, said farmers across Nigeria were facing erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and extreme flooding.
He noted that drought and desertification were particularly affecting the northern belt, while flooding was a major problem in parts of central and southern Nigeria.
This geographical difference means Nigeria cannot rely on a single agricultural climate-adaptation policy.
Solutions must take local conditions into account.
Climate-smart agriculture gains urgency
Experts are increasingly calling for a shift toward climate-smart agriculture.
This includes the use of drought-tolerant and flood-tolerant crop varieties, improved irrigation, mulching, conservation agriculture, crop diversification and agroforestry.
Early-maturing varieties can help farmers complete production cycles before serious dry spells arrive.
Improved drainage can reduce waterlogging and flooding damage.
Better soil-management techniques can help retain moisture during dry periods while reducing erosion during heavy rainfall.
Agroforestry can also help protect soils, improve biodiversity and provide additional sources of income for farmers.
But technology and farming techniques alone will not solve the problem.
Farmers also need access to finance, insurance, extension services, markets and reliable climate information.
Insurance could provide another layer of protection
Agricultural insurance is another area experts say requires greater attention.
When a farmer loses an entire crop to drought or flooding, insurance can potentially provide a financial cushion that allows the farmer to recover and prepare for another season.
However, insurance remains underused among many smallholder farmers.
Cost, limited awareness and difficulties in assessing agricultural risks can discourage uptake.
Experts argue that insurance products need to be designed around the realities of smallholder farming rather than simply adapting conventional insurance models.
Affordable premiums, transparent claims processes and stronger farmer education could help increase participation.
Government support could also play a role in making agricultural insurance more accessible to vulnerable producers.
Women farmers face additional pressures
The climate challenge also has a gender dimension.
ActionAid Nigeria Country Director Dr Andrew Mamedu said climate change was already affecting millions of smallholder farmers, with women particularly vulnerable because they often face additional barriers to land, finance, irrigation, extension services and climate information.
Women play significant roles across Nigeria’s agricultural economy, from cultivation and livestock production to processing and food marketing.
When climate shocks reduce harvests, the consequences can therefore affect household nutrition and income as well as agricultural output.
Improving women farmers’ access to finance, land, technology, irrigation and extension services could strengthen the resilience of entire farming communities.
Food security is ultimately at stake
The agricultural crisis created by climate variability goes beyond farmers.
Nigeria’s food security depends on the ability of farmers to consistently produce crops and livestock at sufficient scale.
When farmers lose money, some reduce the amount of land they cultivate in the following season.
Others may delay planting, abandon vulnerable crops or move into different businesses.
A reduction in cultivated land or productivity can eventually affect food supply.
At the same time, higher production costs can be passed through the value chain, affecting wholesalers, processors, retailers and ultimately consumers.
Climate change can therefore contribute to a cycle in which lower production increases prices, while higher prices do not necessarily translate into higher profits for farmers.
The infrastructure gap
Agricultural resilience also depends heavily on infrastructure.
Farmers need roads to move crops from farms to markets.
They need storage facilities to prevent produce from spoiling immediately after harvest.
They need processing facilities to convert raw agricultural products into higher-value goods.
They need cold-chain systems for perishable commodities.
And they need reliable electricity and water infrastructure to support modern agricultural operations.
ActionAid has called for investment in climate-resilient storage, cold chains, rural roads and local processing facilities as part of a broader response to climate-related agricultural losses.
Such investments could help reduce losses even when production itself is affected by extreme weather.
Farmers need better access to information
Climate information is only useful when it reaches the people who need it in a form they can understand and act upon.
NiMet has developed agricultural meteorology products and crop-weather information specifically to support farmers, herders and fishermen.
The challenge is ensuring that information reaches smallholder farmers before critical decisions have to be made.
That could involve stronger partnerships between NiMet, state ministries of agriculture, extension officers, farmer associations, cooperatives, telecommunications companies and community organisations.
Weather information could be delivered through mobile phones, radio, local-language advisories and community-based extension networks.
The goal would be to make climate information part of everyday farm planning rather than something farmers receive after a weather event has already caused damage.
Government response under scrutiny
Farmers and advocacy groups are calling for a coordinated national response rather than isolated interventions.
ActionAid has argued for increased investment in drought- and flood-tolerant varieties, soil restoration, regenerative agriculture, sustainable livestock systems, irrigation and water harvesting.
It has also called for affordable credit, insurance and targeted support, particularly for smallholder and women farmers.
The argument is that agricultural policy must move beyond responding to individual disasters.
Instead, resilience needs to be built into how farming is financed, planned and supported.
That would require sustained investment rather than short-term emergency assistance after floods or droughts have already caused damage.
A changing business environment for agriculture
Climate uncertainty is also influencing agricultural investment.
Farmers and agribusinesses need some level of predictability before committing substantial funds to production.
When rainfall patterns become uncertain, the risks associated with seeds, fertiliser, labour, machinery and land preparation become harder to calculate.
Financial institutions may also become more cautious about lending to agricultural producers whose ability to repay depends heavily on weather conditions.
That can create another cycle: farmers need financing to invest in irrigation and climate-resilient technology, but lenders may hesitate to provide funds because climate risk increases the possibility of crop failure.
Breaking that cycle could require innovative financing, agricultural insurance and stronger public-private partnerships.
The road ahead
Nigeria cannot eliminate climate change, but farmers and policymakers can reduce its impact.
The immediate priorities identified by farmers and experts include expanding irrigation, improving access to climate information, strengthening agricultural extension services, promoting resilient crop varieties and increasing access to affordable finance and insurance.
Longer-term measures include improving rural infrastructure, strengthening storage and processing capacity, restoring degraded soils and supporting farming systems that use water and other natural resources more efficiently.
The challenge is considerable, but so is the importance of the agricultural sector to Nigeria's future.
For farmers, the issue is no longer simply whether the rains will come.
It is whether they will come at the right time, in the right amount and for long enough to support a successful harvest.
For Nigeria, the answer could have consequences far beyond the farm — affecting food prices, rural livelihoods, investment and national food security.
As climate pressures intensify, the ability to make Nigerian agriculture more resilient may become one of the country's most important economic and food-security priorities.
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