By Simpson Global Media News Desk
Nigeria’s agricultural sector has returned to trade deficit after the value of agricultural exports fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 while imports increased, according to the latest foreign trade figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Agricultural exports stood at approximately ₦803 billion in the second quarter, representing a 36 per cent decline compared with the same period in 2025 and a 32 per cent fall from the preceding quarter.
At the same time, agricultural imports rose to about ₦1.2 trillion, leaving the sector with a net agricultural trade deficit of approximately ₦400.8 billion.
The development represents a reversal from the surplus recorded by Nigeria’s agricultural sector in the previous quarter and raises fresh questions about the country's ability to expand domestic agricultural production, reduce food import dependence and build a stronger non-oil export economy.
The figures arrive as the Federal Government continues to make food security one of its major economic priorities and as authorities pursue programmes aimed at increasing agricultural production, improving access to inputs, expanding irrigation and mechanisation, and strengthening connections between farmers and processors.
The latest trade data, however, show that increasing agricultural activity has not yet translated into sustained growth in the value of Nigeria’s agricultural exports.
Instead, the country imported more agricultural goods while earning substantially less from agricultural exports during the period under review.
That combination is significant for both food security and the broader economy.
The Numbers Behind the Reversal
The NBS data show a clear deterioration in Nigeria’s agricultural trade position during the second quarter of 2026.
Agricultural exports fell to about ₦803 billion.
That represented a year-on-year decline of 36 per cent.
Compared with the first quarter of 2026, the decline was about 32 per cent.
Agricultural imports moved in the opposite direction.
The value of imports reached approximately ₦1.2 trillion, representing a 45 per cent increase compared with the preceding quarter and a two per cent increase year-on-year.
The difference between exports and imports produced a net agricultural trade deficit of about ₦400.8 billion.
The reversal matters because agricultural trade has frequently been identified by successive Nigerian governments as an area with potential to diversify the economy away from crude oil.
Nigeria has a large agricultural workforce, extensive arable land and a wide range of climatic zones suitable for crops and livestock.
The country also has a large domestic market.
In theory, those characteristics should provide a strong foundation for agricultural production and exports.
The latest figures demonstrate that potential alone is not enough.
Production must be reliable.
Farmers must have access to inputs and finance.
Harvests must reach markets efficiently.
Storage and processing capacity must be sufficient.
Security must allow farmers to work their land.
And products must meet the quality, volume and consistency requirements of international buyers.
Where those conditions are weak, agricultural output may struggle to translate into competitive exports.
Agriculture's Small Share of Nigeria's Export Earnings
The weakness becomes even clearer when agricultural exports are placed within Nigeria's overall trade figures.
Agricultural products accounted for only about three per cent of Nigeria's total exports of approximately ₦27.0 trillion during the second quarter.
That is a relatively small contribution considering the size and employment importance of the agricultural sector.
The country's export earnings remained dominated by crude oil and refined petroleum products.
Together, those categories generated about ₦23.3 trillion during the quarter, representing approximately 86 per cent of total exports.
Non-oil exports, excluding crude oil and petroleum products, were valued at about ₦3.7 trillion.
The figures underline the continuing structural dependence of Nigeria's external earnings on petroleum.
Agriculture has long been presented as one of the sectors capable of changing that structure.
Yet the latest quarter shows how difficult it remains to build a consistently strong agricultural export base.
For Nigeria to reduce its exposure to oil-price fluctuations, agriculture would need to become a more reliable source of foreign exchange.
That requires more than increasing the number of hectares under cultivation.
The country must also develop value chains capable of producing commercially competitive products at scale.
Cashew, Cocoa and Sesame Lead Exports
Despite the overall decline, some agricultural commodities continued to perform strongly in international markets.
Cashew nuts in shell were the leading agricultural export product during the second quarter, with exports valued at approximately ₦286.6 billion.
Standard-quality cocoa beans followed with about ₦154.3 billion.
Sesame seeds accounted for approximately ₦96.0 billion.
Together, those commodities represented a significant share of Nigeria's agricultural export earnings.
Their performance also illustrates where Nigeria currently has established international demand.
Cocoa is a major Nigerian agricultural export with a long history.
Sesame has become increasingly important in Nigeria's agricultural trade because of international demand for the crop and its use in food and industrial products.
Cashew has similarly become an important export commodity.
However, dependence on a relatively small group of commodities can create vulnerability.
A poor harvest, international price decline, quality problem or disruption in any major export chain can have a substantial effect on overall agricultural export earnings.
Nigeria therefore faces a dual challenge.
It needs to expand existing competitive agricultural exports while also developing new products and increasing domestic processing.
Why Agricultural Imports Are Rising
The rise in agricultural imports is equally important.
Nigeria imported agricultural goods worth about ₦1.2 trillion during the quarter.
The increase suggests that domestic supply continues to fall short of demand for a number of agricultural and food products.
A growing population naturally creates increasing demand.
But population growth alone does not explain the problem.
Production costs remain high for many farmers.
Fertiliser, improved seeds, pesticides, machinery, transport and labour all affect the cost of production.
Farmers also face difficulties accessing finance at affordable rates.
Where domestic production becomes too expensive or insufficient, imports can fill the gap.
That may help maintain food availability in the short term.
However, persistent dependence on imports can put pressure on foreign exchange and expose Nigerian consumers to international price movements.
It can also weaken the incentive to invest in local production and processing if imported products are able to compete successfully with domestic output.
The policy challenge is therefore not simply to prohibit imports.
Nigeria must increase domestic competitiveness so that locally produced food can meet a larger share of demand at sustainable prices.
Food Security and Trade Are Connected
The latest agricultural trade figures are directly connected to Nigeria's food-security challenge.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation has estimated that tens of millions of Nigerians experienced crisis-level food insecurity or worse during the 2026 lean season.
The deterioration has been associated with a combination of insecurity, high food prices, displacement, climate-related shocks and weak purchasing power.
When domestic agricultural output is insufficient, food imports can provide an important buffer.
But imports do not solve all food-security problems.
They can become expensive when the naira weakens against major international currencies.
International disruptions can also increase costs or reduce availability.
Nigeria's food-security strategy therefore needs a strong domestic production base.
That does not mean the country must produce every commodity domestically.
Rather, it means Nigeria needs to identify the crops, livestock and agricultural products for which it has a genuine comparative advantage and develop those value chains effectively.
The Federal Government has recently emphasised this approach by encouraging states to focus on their agricultural comparative advantages rather than attempting to produce every commodity.
That principle could become increasingly important if Nigeria is to improve both food security and export performance.
Insecurity Remains a Major Agricultural Constraint
Security is one of the most serious obstacles facing Nigerian agriculture.
In parts of the North-East and North-West, insecurity has disrupted farming communities for years.
Farmers may be unable to reach their fields safely.
Some rural communities have been displaced.
Others have reduced the area they cultivate because of fear of attacks.
Where farmers cannot access farmland consistently, production suffers.
The problem extends beyond the farm gate.
Insecurity can disrupt rural markets, transportation routes, storage facilities and supply chains.
Traders may be reluctant to move goods through insecure areas.
Transport costs can rise.
Food can spoil before reaching consumers.
The result is a combination of lower supply and higher prices.
Recent government agricultural policy has increasingly recognised that food security requires cooperation between agricultural and security authorities.
A farmer cannot produce food at scale if the farmer cannot safely reach the farm.
This makes rural security a component of agricultural policy rather than an issue that can be addressed separately.
Climate Pressure Is Adding to the Problem
Climate-related shocks are another major challenge.
Nigeria's farmers are highly exposed to changes in rainfall patterns, flooding, drought and extreme temperatures.
Flooding can destroy crops, livestock, storage facilities and rural roads.
Drought can reduce yields and increase pressure on irrigation systems.
Changing rainfall patterns can make planting and harvesting decisions more difficult.
These risks have direct implications for agricultural trade.
A major production shock can reduce the volume available for export while increasing domestic demand for imports.
That creates pressure in both directions.
Exports fall because there is less surplus to sell abroad.
Imports rise because domestic supply is insufficient.
Climate resilience therefore needs to be part of any strategy aimed at improving agricultural trade.
Irrigation, improved seed varieties, better weather information, water management and climate-smart farming practices can help reduce some of these risks.
The Government's Response
The Federal Government says it is already implementing measures intended to increase agricultural production and strengthen food security.
At the Annual Community of Practice meeting in Maiduguri on October 5, Agriculture and Food Security Minister Abubakar Kyari said stronger coordination between the Federal Government, states and development partners was necessary to translate agricultural policy into results.
The meeting involved federal and state authorities, development partners and other stakeholders working on Nigeria's implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme Kampala Declaration for 2026–2035.
Kyari said Nigeria had developed and validated a 10-year National Agrifood System Strategy and Action Plan to guide implementation.
The strategy is intended to establish clearer roles, responsibilities, timelines and accountability mechanisms.
The approach is broader than simply increasing crop production.
It covers production, investment and finance, food and nutrition security, trade, inclusion, resilience and governance.
That wider approach reflects the reality revealed by the latest trade figures.
Nigeria's agricultural challenge does not begin and end with farmers.
It extends through processing, storage, transportation, markets and international trade.
Fertiliser Supply
Fertiliser remains a central component of Nigeria's agricultural strategy.
Kyari said early procurement under the Presidential Fertiliser Initiative helped secure supplies for the 2026 farming season and generated savings of ₦61.58 billion.
He also said Nigeria was on course to deliver a 1.1 million-metric-tonne fertiliser programme in 2026.
If implemented effectively, improved fertiliser availability can help farmers raise yields.
But fertiliser availability alone cannot guarantee agricultural growth.
Farmers also need access to quality seeds, extension services, irrigation, machinery, credit and markets.
If one part of the system is weak, the benefit of another intervention can be reduced.
For example, a farmer may receive fertiliser but still struggle to cultivate enough land because of inadequate machinery.
Another farmer may produce a large harvest but lose part of it because storage is insufficient.
A third farmer may produce a quality commodity but struggle to reach an export market because of transport or certification problems.
The agricultural system therefore needs coordinated investment.
Mechanisation Becomes a Priority
The Federal Government has also introduced a National Agricultural Mechanisation Policy and National Agricultural Mechanisation Investment Strategy.
The objective is to move away from fragmented equipment interventions towards what the government describes as a sustainable mechanisation ecosystem.
Kyari said plans include the establishment of a mega tractor assembly plant with the capacity to produce between 2,000 and 4,000 tractors annually.
Mechanisation could help address one of the structural problems affecting Nigerian agriculture: low productivity per hectare.
Many smallholder farmers cultivate relatively small plots using labour-intensive methods.
Mechanisation can potentially increase the area farmers cultivate and reduce the time required for land preparation, planting and harvesting.
However, tractors alone will not transform agriculture.
There must also be systems for tractor maintenance, spare parts, trained operators, financing and efficient distribution.
Machines need to reach farmers when they are needed.
A tractor that arrives after the optimal planting period may have little value for that season.
This makes planning and service delivery just as important as equipment procurement.
Land and Farm Size
Land access is another structural issue.
Many Nigerian farmers operate on relatively small plots.
Small-scale farming is not inherently inefficient, but fragmented landholdings can make mechanisation and commercial-scale production more difficult.
They can also make it harder for farmers to adopt irrigation and other infrastructure that requires larger, contiguous areas.
The government has previously indicated an interest in reforms that could encourage larger-scale and more productive agricultural operations.
Such reforms must be approached carefully.
Land policy involves complex questions of ownership, community rights, customary arrangements and access for smallholders.
A drive towards larger farms should not result in vulnerable farmers losing access to land.
The goal should be to improve productivity and investment while protecting legitimate land rights.
Cooperative farming and shared mechanisation models could offer part of the solution.
They can allow smallholders to retain ownership or control while gaining access to equipment and infrastructure that would otherwise be unaffordable individually.
Processing Is the Missing Link
Nigeria's agricultural export problem is also a processing problem.
Exporting raw agricultural commodities can generate foreign exchange, but processing can potentially create significantly more value within the country.
Instead of exporting raw cocoa beans, for example, Nigeria could expand processing into cocoa products.
Instead of exporting unprocessed cashew, greater domestic processing could generate additional value and employment.
The same principle applies to sesame, oilseeds, fruits, grains and other agricultural commodities.
Processing creates additional requirements.
Factories need reliable power.
They need access to finance.
They need consistent supplies of quality raw materials.
They need transportation and storage.
They also need access to domestic and international markets.
The result is that agricultural processing cannot be developed independently of wider infrastructure policy.
Roads, electricity, water, logistics, finance and trade policy all affect whether processing facilities can compete.
Post-Harvest Losses
Nigeria also loses part of its agricultural output after crops leave the farm.
Post-harvest losses can occur during harvesting, transportation, storage and processing.
Poor roads can delay movement.
Inadequate storage can expose crops to moisture, pests and spoilage.
Lack of cold-chain facilities can affect perishable products.
These losses reduce the amount of food reaching consumers and reduce the quantity available for export.
They also reduce farmers' incomes.
If a farmer produces a large harvest but a significant portion is lost before reaching the market, the farmer effectively receives less value from the land and inputs used.
Reducing post-harvest losses can therefore be as important as increasing production.
Storage facilities, warehouses, silos, cold chains and improved transport systems should be considered part of agricultural infrastructure.
Rural Roads and Market Access
A farmer's productivity ultimately matters only if the harvest can reach a buyer.
Many agricultural communities are located far from major markets.
Poor rural roads can increase transport costs and extend journey times.
For perishable products, delays can directly reduce quality.
High transport costs can also reduce the price farmers receive because traders must factor logistics into their purchase offers.
Better rural roads can improve the connection between farms, aggregation centres, processors and cities.
They can also make agricultural inputs cheaper to transport into farming communities.
This is why the Federal Government has called on states to prioritise rural infrastructure as part of their agricultural plans.
Agriculture is not simply a farm activity.
It is a supply chain.
Every weak link affects the final cost and availability of food.
The Role of States
Agriculture is increasingly becoming a test of federal-state coordination.
Nigeria's 36 states have different climates, soils, water resources, crops and economic structures.
A policy that works in a rice-producing area may not be suitable for a cocoa-producing state.
The Federal Government has therefore encouraged states to concentrate on their comparative advantages.
Such specialisation could allow states to build stronger agricultural clusters.
One state might focus on cocoa.
Another might develop rice production.
Another could specialise in livestock, horticulture, oil palm or fisheries.
The important requirement is that specialisation must be connected to markets and processing.
Producing large quantities of a crop without adequate buyers or processing capacity can simply create a glut and depress farmers' prices.
The ideal model is a complete value chain from production through processing to market.
The Export Opportunity Remains
Despite the latest trade deficit, Nigeria's agricultural export potential remains substantial.
Cashew, cocoa and sesame already demonstrate international demand.
Other commodities also have export potential if production quality and consistency improve.
Nigeria has a large domestic market that can support processing industries before products reach international markets.
That provides an advantage.
A processing company does not necessarily need to depend entirely on exports from the beginning.
It can serve Nigerian consumers while gradually developing international markets.
The challenge is ensuring that Nigerian products meet international standards.
Quality control, traceability, packaging, certification and reliable supply are essential.
International buyers need confidence that they can obtain the same quality and volume consistently.
Building that reputation takes time.
Why the Trade Deficit Matters to Farmers
It may seem that agricultural trade statistics are mainly a concern for government officials and economists.
But the implications reach farmers directly.
When imports dominate certain markets, domestic farmers may struggle to compete.
If imported food is cheaper, traders may offer lower prices for local produce.
On the other hand, when domestic production is insufficient, prices can rise sharply, hurting consumers.
The policy objective should therefore be to create a competitive domestic agricultural sector capable of producing enough food efficiently.
Farmers need prices that reward production.
Consumers need food that is affordable.
Exporters need products that can compete internationally.
Government needs foreign exchange and reduced dependence on imports.
Those interests are not necessarily contradictory.
Higher productivity and better value chains can help achieve several of them simultaneously.
Financing Remains Critical
Agricultural production requires capital before income is generated.
Farmers need money to buy inputs, prepare land, plant crops, hire labour and maintain farms.
Smallholder farmers often struggle to access formal credit because they lack conventional collateral or have unpredictable income.
The government and financial institutions have therefore continued to develop agricultural financing programmes.
The Bank of Agriculture, for example, recently partnered with the All-Farmers Association of Nigeria on a programme intended to finance 400,000 farmers ahead of the 2026 dry-season farming cycle.
Such programmes could help increase production if funds reach farmers at the right time and on manageable terms.
But agricultural finance must also recognise farming risks.
A farmer whose crop fails because of flood or drought may be unable to repay a conventional loan.
Insurance can therefore play an important role.
Credit and insurance should increasingly be considered together.
Irrigation and Dry-Season Production
Nigeria's agricultural output remains heavily influenced by rainfall.
Expanding irrigation can reduce that dependence and allow farmers to produce during more than one season.
The Federal Government has identified irrigation as part of its effort to expand all-season production.
Dry-season agriculture can also improve food supply during periods when rain-fed production is unavailable.
Rice, vegetables, wheat and other crops can benefit from controlled water supply where suitable infrastructure exists.
However, irrigation systems require careful management.
Water availability must be assessed.
Infrastructure needs regular maintenance.
Farmers need training in efficient water use.
Energy costs must also be considered where pumps are required.
The long-term objective should be sustainable irrigation rather than simply installing equipment.
Digital Agriculture and Extension Services
Technology is also becoming increasingly important in the agricultural sector.
On October 5, the National Information Technology Development Agency called for integrated digital infrastructure that could extend agricultural advisory services to millions of Nigerian farmers.
The agency argued that Nigeria can no longer rely exclusively on conventional face-to-face agricultural extension services.
Digital platforms can potentially deliver weather information, pest alerts, market prices, farming advice and other information directly to farmers.
The potential is particularly significant in a country with millions of smallholder farmers spread across large geographical areas.
But digital extension must be designed around farmers' realities.
Services should work on affordable devices.
Information should be available in languages farmers understand.
Low-bandwidth and voice-based services may be particularly useful in communities where smartphones or reliable broadband are limited.
The expansion of digital agriculture therefore connects directly with Nigeria's wider technology strategy.
Women and Young Farmers
Women and young people are also central to the future of Nigerian agriculture.
Women participate extensively in agricultural production, processing and marketing, but may face barriers to land ownership, finance, technology and market access.
Young people often face the opposite problem: they may have the energy and education required to adopt new technologies but lack land and capital.
Agricultural policy that ignores either group risks limiting the sector's potential.
Mechanisation, digital tools and improved access to finance could make agriculture more attractive to younger Nigerians.
For women, improved access to land, credit, processing equipment and markets could increase household incomes and strengthen local food systems.
The Federal Government has called for stronger participation of women and young people across agricultural value chains.
The effectiveness of that policy will ultimately depend on whether programmes translate into actual access to productive resources.
The Bigger Economic Picture
The agricultural trade deficit is occurring within a broader economic environment in which Nigeria is attempting to diversify beyond oil.
That diversification remains difficult.
Crude oil and petroleum products still dominate exports.
Agriculture employs millions of Nigerians and has strong links to rural economies, yet its contribution to export earnings remains relatively small.
The latest trade figures therefore highlight a structural challenge.
Nigeria needs agriculture to do several things simultaneously.
It needs to feed the population.
It needs to provide jobs.
It needs to support rural communities.
It needs to supply raw materials to industry.
It needs to generate export earnings.
And it needs to reduce vulnerability to international food-price shocks.
Meeting all of those objectives requires a coordinated strategy.
No single subsidy or agricultural programme can achieve it.
What the Latest Data Really Says
The latest NBS numbers should not be interpreted as evidence that Nigerian agriculture is collapsing.
The sector remains large and economically important.
Nigeria continues to produce major crops and export commodities such as cocoa, cashew and sesame.
Government programmes are also expanding input delivery, mechanisation, irrigation and agricultural financing.
But the trade data expose an important weakness.
Nigeria is not yet consistently converting its agricultural potential into strong external trade performance.
Exports can fall rapidly.
Imports can rise rapidly.
And the country's agricultural trade balance can shift from surplus to deficit within a single quarter.
That volatility demonstrates the need for deeper structural reforms.
The Path Back to Surplus
Reversing the ₦400.8 billion agricultural trade deficit will require more than reducing imports temporarily.
Nigeria needs sustainable increases in productivity.
Farmers need access to reliable inputs.
Rural areas need better security.
Infrastructure must improve.
Storage and processing capacity must expand.
Finance must become more accessible.
Climate risks must be managed.
Export standards must be strengthened.
And agricultural policies at federal and state levels must work together.
The country's recently developed 10-year National Agrifood System Strategy and Action Plan could provide a framework for that coordination.
But strategies ultimately matter only when they are implemented.
The next test will be whether the policy commitments translate into measurable improvements in production, farmer incomes, food prices and export earnings.
A Different Kind of Agricultural Transformation
Nigeria's agricultural transformation cannot simply be measured by the number of tractors purchased or tonnes of fertiliser distributed.
The more meaningful indicators will be whether farmers can produce more per hectare, whether they can sell at profitable prices, whether fewer crops are lost after harvest and whether processed Nigerian agricultural products become more competitive internationally.
The latest trade deficit makes that distinction important.
Agriculture can receive substantial public investment and still struggle to generate strong export performance if bottlenecks elsewhere in the value chain remain.
The country therefore needs to think of agriculture as an interconnected system.
Farmers are the foundation.
But processors, transporters, traders, financial institutions, technology providers, researchers, regulators and exporters all contribute to the final outcome.
The Road Ahead
Nigeria now faces a clear choice.
It can continue responding to agricultural shortages largely through imports, or it can deepen the structural reforms required to make domestic production more competitive.
Imports will continue to have a role in the economy.
No major agricultural country produces every food or commodity its population consumes.
The objective should therefore not be complete isolation from international markets.
Instead, Nigeria should seek a healthier balance in which domestic farmers are competitive, strategic imports fill genuine gaps and agricultural exports generate significantly more value.
The return of the agricultural trade deficit is a warning that the balance remains fragile.
The ₦803 billion export figure shows that Nigeria still earns substantial revenue from agricultural commodities.
But the ₦1.2 trillion import bill shows that domestic production and value chains are not yet strong enough to meet the country's needs consistently.
The resulting ₦400.8 billion deficit is therefore more than a quarterly statistic.
It is a measure of the distance between Nigeria's agricultural potential and its current performance in international trade.
Closing that gap will require sustained investment and consistent policy over many years.
Conclusion
Nigeria's agricultural sector has entered another critical phase.
The country is simultaneously pursuing food security, import substitution, rural development and export diversification.
But the latest trade figures show that those objectives remain unfinished.
Agricultural exports fell by 36 per cent year-on-year to about ₦803 billion in the second quarter of 2026.
Agricultural imports rose to roughly ₦1.2 trillion.
The result was a ₦400.8 billion trade deficit, reversing the surplus recorded in the preceding quarter.
Cashew, cocoa and sesame continued to provide important export earnings, showing that Nigeria already possesses internationally competitive agricultural products.
The challenge is to expand those successes while improving the performance of the wider food system.
That means protecting farmers from insecurity, improving access to land and finance, expanding irrigation, ensuring timely access to inputs, increasing mechanisation, strengthening extension services, reducing post-harvest losses and building processing industries capable of adding value before products leave the country.
It also means creating stronger connections between federal policy and state-level implementation.
The Federal Government's renewed emphasis on the Kampala Declaration and its 10-year National Agrifood System Strategy provides a framework for that work.
But the real measure of success will be visible in the fields, markets and export terminals.
Farmers will know whether productivity has improved.
Consumers will know whether food has become more affordable.
Businesses will know whether supplies have become more reliable.
And trade statistics will show whether Nigeria is earning more from agriculture than it spends on agricultural imports.
For now, the latest numbers deliver a clear message.
Nigeria has enormous agricultural potential, but potential is not the same as performance.
The return to a ₦400.8 billion agricultural trade deficit shows that the country still has significant work to do before its farms, food industries and export markets operate as one competitive system.
The opportunity remains.
So does the challenge.
And the next phase of Nigeria's agricultural policy will determine whether the country can turn its vast farming potential into lasting food security, stronger rural incomes and a more diversified economy.
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