By Simpson Global Media News Desk
Nigeria’s agricultural trade balance has swung from a surplus of ₦740.27 billion in the first half of 2025 to a deficit of ₦56.13 billion in the corresponding period of 2026, highlighting renewed pressure on the country’s ability to turn farm production into export earnings and foreign exchange.
The figures, drawn from the National Bureau of Statistics’ quarterly Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics, show that agricultural exports declined much faster than agricultural imports during the first six months of the year. An analysis of the first- and second-quarter data found that agricultural exports fell by 33.3 per cent year-on-year to about ₦1.98 trillion, compared with approximately ₦2.96 trillion in the first half of 2025.
Agricultural imports also declined over the same period, but by a substantially smaller 8.5 per cent, from about ₦2.22 trillion in the first half of 2025 to ₦2.03 trillion in the first half of 2026.
The resulting ₦56.13 billion deficit represents a reversal of ₦796.40 billion within one year.
The development has renewed debate over the performance of Nigeria’s agricultural value chains, the ability of farmers and processors to compete internationally, and the extent to which the country is capturing the economic value generated by commodities such as cocoa, cashew, sesame and soya beans.
It has also placed renewed attention on the cost of agricultural production, insecurity in farming communities, infrastructure, processing capacity, access to finance, weather-related risks and the movement of produce from farms to domestic and international markets.
A sharp reversal in the trade position
The latest figures do not mean that Nigeria’s agricultural sector has stopped producing or exporting.
Rather, they show that the value of agricultural goods leaving the country declined sharply during the period while imports remained sufficiently high to push the sector's overall trade balance into negative territory.
According to an analysis of NBS data, agricultural exports stood at about ₦1.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2026 and fell to ₦802.99 billion in the second quarter.
In the second quarter alone, agricultural exports were 36.09 per cent lower than the ₦1.26 trillion recorded in the same quarter of 2025 and 31.51 per cent below the first-quarter 2026 figure.
Agricultural imports, meanwhile, rose during the second quarter.
NBS data showed that agricultural imports reached ₦1.20376 trillion in the second quarter, up 1.63 per cent from ₦1.18442 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and 45.43 per cent from ₦827.72 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
The second-quarter figures therefore produced an agricultural trade deficit of about ₦400.78 billion.
That deficit more than offset the estimated ₦344.65 billion agricultural trade surplus recorded in the first quarter, resulting in the relatively small ₦56.13 billion deficit for the first half of the year.
The pattern is significant because it demonstrates how quickly the trade position can change when export earnings weaken.
For farmers and agricultural businesses, the issue goes beyond the headline trade balance. Lower export earnings can translate into weaker demand for certain commodities, reduced incentives for commercial production, pressure on farm-gate prices and fewer opportunities to expand processing and value addition.
At the same time, imports can continue to meet gaps in domestic supply, particularly where local production, processing or distribution cannot consistently satisfy demand.
What is behind the decline?
The latest figures do not by themselves establish one single cause for the decline in agricultural exports.
However, farmers, agricultural businesses, development agencies and government officials have repeatedly identified a combination of production, logistics, security, climate and investment constraints affecting Nigeria’s food system.
One of the most persistent problems is the cost of producing and moving agricultural commodities.
Farmers require seeds, fertiliser, chemicals, machinery, labour, water, storage and transportation. Increases in several of these costs can reduce the competitiveness of Nigerian products in international markets.
The Food and Agriculture Organization has also warned that high agricultural input prices are constraining cereal production prospects in Nigeria. Its September country brief noted that fertiliser prices increased significantly between February and May 2026, with NPK prices estimated to have risen by 12 per cent and urea by 43 per cent during that period.
Higher fuel and transportation costs can compound the problem.
A commodity may be profitable at the farm level but become less competitive by the time it has travelled through aggregation, storage, transportation, processing, packaging and export channels.
This is particularly important in a country where agricultural production is spread across large rural areas while major consumption centres, processing facilities, ports and export markets are concentrated in particular locations.
Agriculture still has strong export commodities
The decline in overall agricultural exports should not obscure the fact that Nigeria continues to have major internationally traded agricultural commodities.
NBS data for the second quarter showed cashew nuts in shell, standard-quality cocoa beans, sesame seeds, superior-quality cocoa beans and soya beans among the leading agricultural export products.
Cashew nuts in shell were valued at about ₦268.61 billion during the quarter, while standard-quality cocoa beans were valued at approximately ₦154.31 billion.
Sesame seeds contributed about ₦96.03 billion, superior-quality cocoa beans about ₦58.82 billion and soya beans approximately ₦50.22 billion.
The figures demonstrate that international demand for Nigerian agricultural commodities remains significant.
The challenge is whether Nigeria can consistently produce enough high-quality commodities, meet international standards and deliver them to buyers at competitive prices.
The issue also involves how much of the value generated by those commodities remains in Nigeria.
When agricultural products leave the country largely in raw or minimally processed form, opportunities for domestic employment, industrial development, packaging, logistics and higher-value exports may be lost.
This has long been an issue for commodities such as cocoa and cashew.
The value-addition question
Nigeria's agricultural export challenge is therefore not simply a question of producing more crops.
It is also a question of what happens after harvest.
A farmer who produces cocoa beans is one part of a much longer value chain. Between the farm and the final consumer can be aggregators, transporters, warehouses, quality-control providers, processors, exporters, manufacturers, distributors and retailers.
Each stage can create economic value and employment.
If processing occurs outside Nigeria, however, much of that additional value is created elsewhere.
The same principle applies to cashew.
Exporting raw cashew nuts generates income for farmers, traders and exporters, but processing the nuts domestically can potentially create additional jobs and industrial demand for packaging, machinery, transport and services.
The Federal Government has repeatedly emphasised agricultural transformation and value addition as part of its broader food-security and economic-diversification strategy.
But building processing capacity requires more than policy statements.
Processors need reliable electricity, affordable finance, suitable infrastructure, predictable raw-material supply and access to domestic and international markets.
They also need to be able to compete with processors in countries where infrastructure, financing and logistics may be more developed.
Cocoa illustrates the challenge
Cocoa remains one of Nigeria’s most important agricultural export commodities, but its trade performance also illustrates the tension between production and value addition.
In the first quarter of 2026, cocoa beans accounted for a substantial share of Nigeria’s agricultural export earnings.
NBS-related analysis showed superior-quality cocoa beans alone generated about ₦596.89 billion in the first quarter, while cocoa exports declined considerably in the second quarter as the broader agricultural export category weakened.
Nigeria has processing facilities capable of adding value to cocoa, but the country still exports substantial quantities of beans.
The difference between exporting beans and exporting processed cocoa products can be economically significant.
Processing can create opportunities in grinding, cocoa butter, cocoa powder, chocolate and other food and industrial products.
However, processors must secure enough beans at competitive prices and maintain standards required by international buyers.
This makes the health of the farming sector inseparable from the health of the manufacturing sector.
If farmers cannot produce consistently, processors struggle.
If processors cannot compete, farmers may have fewer stable markets.
If exporters cannot move products efficiently, international buyers can turn to competitors.
The agricultural economy therefore functions as a chain, and weaknesses at one point can affect the entire system.
Farmers also face climate pressure
The trade figures have emerged at a time when Nigerian agriculture is facing increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
A report published on October 7 by Vanguard highlighted concerns from farmers and agricultural experts about irregular rainfall, prolonged dry spells, flooding, rising temperatures, pests and crop diseases. Farmers interviewed for the report said such conditions were causing substantial losses and making agricultural investment more difficult.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction warned of variations in rainfall patterns across the country, including areas expected to experience above-normal rainfall and others facing below-normal rainfall.
The agency also identified the possibility of dry spells across parts of several northern and central states.
For farmers, unpredictable weather complicates decisions about when to plant, how much land to cultivate, which varieties to use and how much money to invest.
A prolonged dry spell after planting can damage germination and crop development.
Excessive rainfall can cause flooding, erosion, waterlogging and disease.
Both conditions can reduce yields and raise production costs.
The impact does not necessarily end at harvest.
Flooding can damage rural roads and bridges, making it difficult to transport produce to markets. Poor storage facilities can compound post-harvest losses, particularly when harvested crops cannot quickly reach processors or consumers.
Security remains another constraint
Insecurity is another challenge facing agricultural production in parts of Nigeria.
The FAO reported in September that conflict was severely disrupting agricultural activities in several states, including Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto and Zamfara.
The agency said attacks by non-state armed groups had restricted access to farmland in affected areas, while levies and cultivation restrictions imposed on some farming communities had forced households to reduce the area they cultivated or suspend agricultural activities.
The consequences extend beyond individual farmers.
When farming communities cannot safely access their land, local food supplies can fall.
Reduced production can increase prices and encourage greater dependence on supplies from other areas or imports.
In export-oriented commodities, insecurity can also disrupt the volume and reliability of supplies available to exporters and processors.
Agricultural security therefore has implications for both food security and Nigeria's ability to participate competitively in international agricultural markets.
The paradox of stronger overall trade
The agricultural trade deficit is particularly notable because Nigeria recorded a much larger overall merchandise trade surplus during the second quarter.
NBS data showed total merchandise trade stood at ₦41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, with exports of ₦27.02 trillion and imports of ₦14.42 trillion, producing an overall trade surplus of ₦12.60 trillion.
However, the composition of that trade remains heavily influenced by petroleum.
Crude oil exports were worth approximately ₦12.91 trillion in the second quarter, while other oil products accounted for about ₦10.38 trillion.
Agricultural goods, by comparison, generated ₦802.99 billion.
That means Nigeria can record a strong overall trade surplus while simultaneously experiencing deterioration in the trade position of agriculture.
The distinction matters for economic diversification.
A country seeking to reduce its dependence on petroleum needs sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals to contribute increasingly to exports.
The latest data show that this transition remains uneven.
While raw-material exports rose strongly, agricultural exports declined.
NBS data showed raw-material exports reached about ₦2.31 trillion in the second quarter, representing an increase of more than 181 per cent compared with the same period of 2025.
The contrast suggests that the wider non-oil economy is not moving uniformly.
Some export categories are expanding while others are under pressure.
Government's agricultural agenda
The Federal Government has continued to present food security, agricultural productivity and value-chain development as major policy priorities.
The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security is currently working with state governments, development partners and other stakeholders to implement the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, including the Kampala Agenda for 2026–2035.
At a Community of Practice meeting in Maiduguri on October 5, Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari said stronger alignment among the Federal Government, states and development partners was necessary to achieve sustainable food security and resilient livelihoods.
The ministry has also outlined measures aimed at improving agricultural productivity and resilience.
Its agricultural investment plan includes plans to strengthen the national input-delivery system, distribute certified seeds and fertiliser to smallholders, expand digital tracking of agricultural inputs and strengthen extension services.
The plan also includes a target of placing at least 100,000 hectares under public-private-partnership-led irrigation schemes across the six geopolitical zones.
Such measures are designed to address some of the structural weaknesses that leave agricultural production vulnerable to rainfall patterns and high input costs.
But the key question is implementation.
For farmers, a policy becomes meaningful when an input reaches the farm on time, irrigation water is available when needed, extension officers provide practical advice, produce can reach the market safely and financing is available at a manageable cost.
Agriculture recorded growth earlier in the year
The latest export figures should also be considered alongside evidence that agricultural production itself has not uniformly deteriorated.
The Federal Government said in September that Nigeria's agriculture sector recorded 4.39 per cent growth in the second quarter of 2026, describing it as the sector's strongest performance since 2021.
This creates an important distinction.
Growth in agricultural production does not automatically translate into higher agricultural exports.
A country may harvest more crops while exporting less if domestic demand absorbs more of the production, international prices change, export logistics become less competitive, quality standards restrict shipments, or processing and storage constraints prevent commodities from reaching foreign buyers.
The agricultural trade figures therefore need to be interpreted alongside production data rather than in isolation.
The central issue is not merely how much Nigeria grows.
It is how much of what Nigeria grows can be preserved, processed, marketed and sold competitively.
The importance of storage and logistics
Post-harvest losses remain another important consideration.
Farmers can invest heavily in production only to lose part of their harvest because of inadequate storage, poor roads, insufficient cold-chain facilities or delays in reaching buyers.
For perishable commodities, the problem can be particularly severe.
Even for crops with longer shelf lives, poor storage can affect quality and market value.
Export markets can be especially demanding because international buyers may require specific grades, moisture levels, packaging standards, traceability systems and certification.
Improving these systems could potentially help Nigeria capture more value from existing production without necessarily requiring an immediate dramatic expansion in cultivated land.
This is one reason agricultural transformation increasingly focuses on the entire value chain rather than the farm alone.
Finance remains central
Agricultural finance is another critical part of the equation.
Farmers need money before they earn money.
Inputs must be purchased before planting. Labour must be paid during the production cycle. Machinery, irrigation and transportation require capital. For tree crops such as cocoa, returns can take years to materialise.
Commercial lenders may consider agriculture risky because of weather, insecurity, fluctuating commodity prices and uncertain repayment patterns.
Farmers who cannot access affordable credit may reduce the amount they plant or rely on lower-cost inputs that can affect yields.
Processors face a similar challenge.
A processing company may need to buy large volumes of agricultural commodities during a short harvest period, meaning significant working capital can be tied up for months.
If financing costs are too high, the processor may be unable to compete for raw materials.
This can create a cycle in which farmers lack strong markets while processors struggle to obtain adequate supplies.
The export opportunity remains substantial
Despite the current setback, Nigeria's agricultural export potential remains considerable.
The country has a large domestic market, diverse ecological zones and established production of crops with international demand.
Cocoa, cashew, sesame, soya beans, ginger, rubber, palm products and other commodities offer opportunities for export growth.
The challenge is to convert those opportunities into reliable, high-value and sustainable trade.
That requires consistency.
International buyers need to know that a supplier can deliver the required quantity and quality repeatedly.
Farmers need dependable markets.
Exporters need efficient ports and logistics.
Processors need reliable electricity and financing.
Government agencies need effective standards and certification systems.
Financial institutions need mechanisms that can manage agricultural risk.
Research institutions need to provide improved seeds and technologies adapted to local conditions.
The entire chain must function together.
What the latest numbers mean for food security
The agricultural trade deficit also comes against a difficult food-security environment.
FAO reported that Nigeria's 2026 cereal production prospects were mixed, with generally favourable conditions in several northern areas but localised production risks caused by dry spells, conflict and other factors.
The organisation also reported elevated food inflation and a severe food-security situation in Borno State.
This means the country faces two related but distinct objectives.
Nigeria must produce enough food to feed its growing population at affordable prices.
At the same time, it needs to produce exportable surpluses capable of generating foreign exchange and supporting rural incomes.
Achieving both objectives requires productivity gains.
If domestic demand consumes virtually all available output, exports may remain limited.
If agricultural production expands without adequate processing and market access, farmers may struggle to receive the full economic benefit.
The most sustainable approach is therefore to increase productivity while simultaneously strengthening storage, processing, transport and market systems.
Political criticism and the government's broader challenge
The latest agricultural trade figures have also become the subject of political criticism.
Former Vice President and African Democratic Congress presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, in a statement issued through his campaign communications director Phrank Shaibu on October 7, criticised the Federal Government over the decline in agricultural export earnings.
Atiku cited the N740.27 billion surplus in the first half of 2025 and the N56.13 billion deficit in the first half of 2026, arguing that insecurity, production costs and inadequate value addition were hurting farmers and businesses.
His comments are political in nature and should be considered in that context.
However, the underlying trade figures come from NBS foreign-trade statistics, giving the debate a measurable economic basis.
The figures do not by themselves establish that government policy caused the decline, nor do they demonstrate that farmers have uniformly experienced deterioration.
They do, however, show that agricultural exports performed significantly worse in the first half of 2026 than in the same period of 2025.
That is an issue policymakers, farmers, exporters and businesses will need to examine closely.
A need to move beyond production alone
For decades, Nigeria's agricultural debate has often centred on how to increase production.
That remains important.
But the latest trade figures demonstrate that production is only one part of the equation.
Nigeria must also improve what happens between harvest and final sale.
That includes grading, aggregation, storage, processing, packaging, certification, transportation, financing and export logistics.
A farmer producing a high-quality crop should be connected to a buyer who can pay a competitive price.
A processor should have access to enough raw materials.
An exporter should be able to meet international delivery schedules.
A foreign buyer should have confidence in the quality and consistency of Nigerian agricultural products.
If those connections are strengthened, higher production can translate into higher incomes and stronger exports.
If they remain weak, increased production alone may not generate the expected economic returns.
What happens next
The immediate task for policymakers is to understand why agricultural exports fell so sharply in the second quarter and whether the weakness is temporary or likely to continue.
The answer will require commodity-level analysis.
Cocoa, cashew, sesame and soya beans have different production cycles, markets and export conditions. A decline in one commodity can have a very different cause from a decline in another.
Government agencies, exporters, commodity associations and farmers will also need to examine whether logistics, quality standards, international prices, domestic demand, financing or production disruptions contributed most significantly to the decline.
The results could influence decisions about agricultural incentives, export promotion, processing investment, infrastructure and farmer support.
At the same time, the government's food-security programmes will need to remain focused on productivity and resilience.
Irrigation, improved seeds, extension services, mechanisation, rural roads, storage and agricultural insurance can reduce some of the risks that currently discourage investment.
Climate adaptation will also become increasingly important.
As weather patterns become less predictable, farmers will need access to reliable forecasts, drought- and flood-tolerant varieties, irrigation and improved water-management systems.
The bigger picture
Nigeria's agricultural trade deficit of ₦56.13 billion in the first half of 2026 is relatively small compared with the country's overall merchandise trade, but its significance extends beyond the number itself.
It is an indication that the country's agricultural export engine is not yet operating with the consistency required to make the sector a stronger source of foreign exchange.
The reversal from a ₦740.27 billion surplus in the first half of 2025 to a ₦56.13 billion deficit one year later represents a substantial change in the sector's external position.
The underlying numbers show that exports fell much more rapidly than imports.
At the same time, Nigeria continues to possess substantial agricultural resources and maintains strong international demand for several of its farm commodities.
The challenge, therefore, is not simply whether Nigeria can produce.
It is whether it can produce efficiently, protect crops from climate and security shocks, reduce post-harvest losses, process more commodities domestically, meet international standards and move products to buyers at competitive cost.
For farmers, the desired outcome is straightforward: predictable markets, manageable production costs and better returns on their labour.
For processors, it is reliable access to raw materials and affordable infrastructure.
For exporters, it is consistent supply and competitive logistics.
For government, it is a food system that can support domestic consumption while building a stronger non-oil export base.
And for the wider economy, it is the opportunity to keep more of the value generated by Nigerian agriculture within Nigeria.
The latest trade figures show that the opportunity remains, but so does the challenge.
Nigeria's agricultural future will depend not only on how much is planted or harvested, but on how effectively the country connects the farm to the factory, the market and ultimately the global consumer.
That is the task now facing the sector as policymakers respond to the latest trade reversal and prepare for the next agricultural production and export cycle.
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