By Simpson Global Media News Desk
DATE OF REPORT RELEASE: 28 October 2026
TIME: Exact release time not confirmed in available reporting
MONTH AND YEAR: October 2026
LOCATION: Washington, D.C., United States — World Bank report release; no physical event venue confirmed
REPORT/PUBLICATION DATE: 28 October 2026
REPORT: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026
REPORTING SCOPE: Global commodity markets, energy, food, metals, fertilisers and precious metals
World Bank Forecasts Broad Commodity Price Increases
Global commodity prices are projected to rise by 23% in 2026 as conflict in the Middle East, disrupted shipping routes, pressure on energy supplies and risks to agricultural production increase costs across the world economy, according to a new report from the World Bank.
In its Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, the World Bank projected that energy prices would increase by 32% this year, while metals prices could rise by 25% and precious metals by 40%. Food commodity prices are expected to rise by slightly more than 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, producing a cumulative increase of approximately 18% over the two years.
The report warns that the price outlook could deteriorate further if conflict affecting energy supplies intensifies, damage to Russian oil infrastructure persists, grain shipments through the Black Sea are disrupted or a severe El Niño weather pattern damages harvests.
The forecasts place renewed pressure on governments, businesses and households already dealing with higher energy, transport, fertiliser and food costs. For economies that depend heavily on imported fuel, food or industrial inputs, sustained increases in global prices can complicate inflation management and place additional pressure on public finances.
The World Bank expects overall commodity prices to decline by 7% in 2027 under its baseline forecast. That projected easing, however, does not mean prices will immediately return to previous levels or that households and businesses will automatically experience lower costs.
The report emphasises that several shocks are affecting commodity markets at the same time, making energy supply, shipping and agricultural conditions particularly important to the outlook.
For Nigeria and other developing economies, the implications will depend on their exposure to imported products, the performance of domestic production, exchange-rate movements, government policy and how global prices are transmitted into local markets. <Cite refs={["turn963119search0","turn963119news12","turn963119search1"]}/>
Energy Prices Expected to Record a Major Increase
Energy is the largest driver of the World Bank’s latest commodity-price forecast.
The institution projects that energy prices will rise by 32% in 2026, reversing three consecutive years of declines and pushing the energy price index to a four-year high.
Brent crude oil is forecast to average approximately $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 per barrel in 2027.
The report links the increase to the effects of the Middle East conflict on oil production, transportation and inventories. Disruptions affecting important shipping routes and energy infrastructure have made the global supply outlook more uncertain.
The World Bank estimates that global oil supply will fall by 5.2% in 2026. Excluding the 2020 global recession, the decline would be the largest in more than four decades, according to the report.
Global oil consumption is also expected to fall, by a projected 2.5%. This would represent the third-largest annual contraction on record, after 2020 and 1980.
The decline in consumption reflects the response of users to high prices and supply constraints, alongside longer-term changes in energy use. The report notes that electrification is reducing oil demand in some areas, particularly China.
Nevertheless, demand is projected to remain above production, requiring additional withdrawals from oil inventories and leaving the market vulnerable to further supply disruptions.
That imbalance is important because inventories provide a buffer when production or transportation is interrupted. When stocks are depleted, an additional disruption can have a greater effect on prices than it would in a market with more readily available supplies.
The World Bank’s baseline outlook assumes that conflicts affecting commodity supplies will not intensify substantially beyond the conditions incorporated into its projections. A more severe disruption could produce a materially different outcome.
Why the Middle East Conflict Matters to Global Markets
The Middle East remains central to the energy-price outlook because the region is important to global oil production and international energy transportation.
Conflict can affect commodity markets through several channels. Production facilities may be damaged, shipments may be delayed, insurance and freight costs may rise, and buyers may compete more aggressively for supplies available from other producers.
Even when oil production facilities remain operational, uncertainty about whether crude can be transported safely can affect prices.
Oil is traded internationally, meaning a disruption in one region can influence prices paid by buyers far away from the conflict. Refiners, airlines, shipping companies, manufacturers and fuel distributors may all face higher costs when crude oil becomes more expensive.
Those costs can spread beyond the energy sector. Higher fuel prices can increase the expense of transporting food, operating machinery and distributing manufactured goods. Businesses may absorb some of the increase, pass it on to customers or reduce other spending.
The effects can be particularly difficult for lower-income households because food, transport and energy often account for substantial portions of their budgets.
For governments, higher energy costs can also complicate decisions about fuel subsidies, public transport, electricity pricing and support for vulnerable households.
The World Bank cautions that its projections are vulnerable to further shocks. Continued conflict, additional damage to energy infrastructure or greater disruption to transport routes could push prices above the baseline forecast.
The report therefore presents the expected 23% increase as a forecast under specified assumptions, not a guaranteed final outcome. <Cite refs={["turn963119search0","turn963119news12"]}/>
Food Prices Face Pressure From Conflict and Weather
Food commodity prices are expected to rise by slightly more than 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, according to the World Bank.
The cumulative increase would be approximately 18% across the two years.
The institution identifies several contributing factors, including disrupted grain shipments, higher energy costs, rising fertiliser expenses and the threat of a strong El Niño weather pattern.
Food markets are particularly sensitive to the interaction between production and transportation. A disruption that reduces the quantity of grain reaching international markets can raise prices for importers, while higher fuel costs increase the expense of moving agricultural products from farms to ports and from ports to consumers.
Weather adds another layer of uncertainty. El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across different regions, potentially affecting crop yields and agricultural production.
The effects are not uniform. Some producing regions may experience conditions that damage harvests, while others may experience different or less severe effects. The global price impact depends on the geographical distribution of production losses, the availability of inventories and the ability of other producers to increase supply.
The World Bank warns that the combination of energy-price increases, grain-shipment disruptions and a very strong El Niño could raise the risk of a wider food crisis.
Such a crisis would be especially difficult for countries that depend on imports of staple foods or have limited fiscal capacity to support households facing higher prices.
Food affordability also depends on local factors. Exchange rates, transport infrastructure, domestic harvests, storage facilities and distribution costs influence how international commodity prices reach consumers.
Consequently, a global food-price forecast does not translate directly into an identical increase in retail food prices in every country. It does, however, indicate that risks to affordability are increasing and that governments may need to strengthen monitoring and support for vulnerable households. <Cite refs={["turn963119search0","turn963119search1"]}/>
Fertiliser Costs Could Increase Pressure on Farmers
Fertiliser prices are forecast to rise by 14% in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
The World Bank said urea prices surged early in the year before easing. Despite that moderation, the annual forecast indicates that fertiliser costs remain a concern for agricultural producers.
Fertilisers are an important input for maintaining soil nutrients and crop productivity. When their prices increase, farmers must decide whether to purchase the same quantities at higher cost, reduce application rates, change crops or seek alternative inputs.
Each response carries potential consequences. Reducing fertiliser use may lower immediate expenditure but can affect yields where nutrients are needed. Maintaining application rates can protect production but increase borrowing requirements and financial risk.
The effects may be felt by small-scale farmers who have limited access to credit and may need to purchase inputs before harvest income becomes available.
Higher fertiliser costs can also influence planting decisions and the amount of land farmers choose to cultivate. If rising costs discourage production, the consequences may extend into subsequent seasons.
For food markets, this creates a potential feedback loop. Higher energy costs increase the expense of producing and transporting fertiliser; more expensive fertiliser raises farm costs; and if producers respond by reducing output, food supplies may tighten.
The World Bank’s forecast that fertiliser prices could return to 2025 levels in 2027 offers some prospect of relief, but the timing and extent of that decline remain uncertain.
Farmers and policymakers will need to consider both the price of fertiliser and its availability. A lower international price provides limited relief if supplies cannot reach local markets reliably or if currency depreciation makes imports more expensive.
For governments, targeted agricultural support, better distribution systems and measures to improve input efficiency could help reduce the effect of global price shocks on production. Such interventions must be designed carefully to avoid waste, market distortions or benefits being concentrated among producers who need assistance least.
Metals Prices Projected to Reach New Highs
The World Bank forecasts that metals prices will rise by 25% in 2026, reaching a new high.
The projected increase reflects demand associated with investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, alongside supply disruptions affecting some metals.
Aluminium, copper and tin prices have all reached record highs during the period covered by the report.
These materials serve different but interconnected purposes across the global economy. Copper is widely used in electrical systems and industrial equipment; aluminium is important in transport, construction and manufacturing; and tin is used in applications including electronics.
The expansion of electricity networks, renewable energy systems and digital infrastructure can increase demand for metals used in equipment and construction.
Data centres require power distribution systems, cooling infrastructure, electrical connections and other materials. Investment in artificial intelligence and cloud computing can therefore influence demand for industrial commodities beyond the technology sector itself.
However, the relationship between technology investment and metal prices is not one-directional. Prices also depend on mining output, inventories, transport capacity, processing costs, substitution and broader industrial activity.
The World Bank expects metals prices to decline by 3% in 2027 under its baseline forecast. That would represent a moderation after the projected increase in 2026, rather than a complete reversal of the gains.
The outlook illustrates how investment in new technology and energy systems can create demand pressures even while geopolitical disruptions affect supplies.
For manufacturers, higher metals prices can increase the cost of equipment and construction. Some companies may absorb the extra expense, while others may pass it on to customers or postpone projects.
The effect on individual businesses will depend on their exposure to specific materials and whether they can secure supplies through long-term contracts or alternative sources. <Cite refs={["turn963119search0","turn963119search1"]}/>
Precious Metals Supported by Uncertainty
Precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 40% in 2026 as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
Gold is a prominent example of an asset investors may use to diversify portfolios during periods of financial or political uncertainty. Its price can respond to expectations about inflation, interest rates, currencies and the perceived risks associated with other investments.
The World Bank expects precious metals prices to moderate somewhat in 2027 while remaining more than three times their average level during 2015–2019.
That comparison highlights the extent of the projected increase relative to the pre-pandemic period.
Gold prices do not move in response to one factor alone. When investors become more concerned about geopolitical risks, demand for gold may increase. But higher interest rates can make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to gold, which does not pay interest.
Currency movements can also affect gold prices in different markets. Because gold is commonly quoted in US dollars, changes in the dollar’s value can influence the price paid by buyers using other currencies.
The World Bank’s forecast reflects the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and demand for assets perceived as stores of value. It should not be interpreted as a guarantee that gold prices will rise continuously or that every investor will benefit.
Investors considering precious metals must account for price volatility, transaction costs, currency exposure and the possibility that market conditions may change.
The report’s central point is that uncertainty has become a major influence on commodity markets, with effects extending beyond the energy and food sectors. <Cite refs={["turn963119search0","turn963119news12"]}/>
Global Inflation Could Remain Difficult to Control
Higher commodity prices can complicate efforts by central banks to control inflation.
Energy prices affect transport, electricity generation and industrial production. Food prices directly influence household living costs, while higher fertiliser and metal prices can increase expenses across agricultural and manufacturing supply chains.
Businesses facing higher costs may raise prices, reduce profit margins or cut spending. The balance depends on competitive conditions, consumer demand and their ability to absorb the increase.
If price increases spread across a broad range of goods and services, central banks may face greater difficulty bringing inflation down.
Interest-rate decisions then become more complicated. Raising rates can help restrain demand and limit persistent inflation, but it also increases borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments.
Keeping rates lower may support economic activity, but it can be difficult if inflation remains elevated and expectations of future price increases become entrenched.
The World Bank warns that the combination of higher energy prices and trade disruptions could worsen inflation and weaken economic growth.
The consequences will vary across countries. Economies that export energy may receive higher revenues from some commodities, while those that import fuel and food may face larger import bills.
Even exporting countries can experience pressure if domestic fuel prices rise, food becomes more expensive or government spending needs increase.
The policy challenge is to respond to the immediate burden on vulnerable households without creating unsustainable fiscal commitments or weakening incentives for efficient energy use and domestic production.
What the Outlook Means for Developing Economies
Developing economies often have less room to absorb large external price shocks than wealthier countries.
Governments with limited fiscal space may find it difficult to expand assistance when fuel and food costs rise. Higher import bills can also increase demand for foreign currency, putting pressure on exchange rates where supplies of foreign exchange are constrained.
The effects can be especially serious for countries that rely on imported petroleum products, fertilisers, grain or other essential inputs.
However, the outcome is not identical across all developing economies. Countries that export certain commodities may benefit from higher international prices, while others may experience a net loss.
The final impact depends on the composition of exports and imports, domestic production capacity, the exchange rate, tax policy and the degree to which global prices are passed through to local consumers.
The World Bank said it had made between $50 billion and $60 billion available through existing financing instruments to support countries dealing with the consequences of higher prices. This includes $25 billion in pre-arranged financing that can support social safety nets, fiscal capacity, working capital and liquidity for firms and farms.
The availability of financing may help governments respond to shocks, but it does not remove the need for careful spending decisions and effective targeting.
Assistance is most useful when it reaches households and businesses facing the greatest pressure and helps maintain essential services and productive activity.
Countries also need to strengthen their resilience over time through more diversified energy supplies, improved agricultural productivity, reliable transport networks and policies that reduce vulnerability to sudden external shocks. <Cite refs={["turn963119search0","turn963119search1"]}/>
Implications for Nigeria
For Nigeria, the World Bank’s forecast presents both potential opportunities and risks.
Higher international crude oil prices can increase export earnings and government revenue when production volumes, export arrangements and fiscal conditions allow the country to benefit.
However, higher global energy prices can also increase costs across the domestic economy. The effect on Nigerian households and businesses will depend on the country’s fuel supply arrangements, refining output, distribution costs, exchange rates and the extent to which international prices influence local prices.
Higher transport costs can affect the movement of agricultural produce from farms to markets, as well as the distribution of manufactured goods and consumer products.
If fertiliser prices remain elevated, Nigerian farmers could face higher production costs. This is especially relevant where producers depend on purchased inputs and have limited access to affordable credit.
Agricultural output also depends on weather conditions, seed quality, irrigation, storage, security and transport. Global commodity prices are therefore only one part of the outlook for domestic food supply.
Nigeria’s oil-export position can provide a source of revenue during periods of elevated crude prices, but higher prices alone do not guarantee improved public finances or household welfare. Production levels, costs, revenue collection and the government’s spending obligations also matter.
A comprehensive assessment should consider the combined effect of oil earnings, domestic energy costs, food affordability, exchange-rate movements and the cost of imported industrial inputs.
For policymakers, the key question is how to manage the potential gains from higher export prices while limiting the burden on consumers and productive sectors.
Businesses Face Higher Costs and Planning Uncertainty
Companies across transport, agriculture, manufacturing, construction and retail may need to reassess budgets as commodity markets respond to supply disruptions.
For businesses that rely on fuel, higher prices can increase logistics expenses and the cost of operating equipment. Manufacturers may also face higher costs for metals, chemicals, packaging and other industrial inputs.
Agricultural businesses must consider fertiliser availability and the cost of moving products to storage facilities and markets.
Companies may respond by negotiating supply contracts, improving fuel efficiency, reducing waste, diversifying suppliers or adjusting production schedules.
However, the ability to make these changes varies considerably. Large firms may have more resources to hedge price exposure or secure long-term supply agreements, while smaller enterprises may have fewer options.
Businesses also need to distinguish between temporary price movements and structural changes in supply. Committing to expensive long-term arrangements during a period of uncertainty can create risks if market conditions later reverse.
At the same time, failing to prepare for sustained price increases can leave firms exposed to sudden cost pressures.
The World Bank’s outlook provides a framework for planning, but companies will need to monitor actual market developments and assess their own exposure rather than rely exclusively on global averages.
Risks Could Push Prices Above the Baseline Forecast
The World Bank’s baseline projections assume that there will be no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies. The report nevertheless identifies a more adverse scenario.
In that scenario, continued escalation in the Middle East, persistent damage to Russian oil infrastructure, disruption to Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño could combine to raise energy and food prices further.
The bank said Brent crude could average $105 per barrel in 2027 under this adverse scenario. Food commodity prices could be 12% higher than expected in the baseline forecast, exceeding their 2022 level.
Such an outcome would have serious implications for inflation, food security and economic growth, especially in countries with high import dependence or limited capacity to provide social assistance.
The scenario is not the bank’s central forecast. It is a warning about how several risks could interact if they occur together.
The distinction matters because forecasts are based on assumptions about future conditions. If those assumptions change, projected prices may also change substantially.
Policymakers and businesses should therefore plan for a range of outcomes rather than assume that the baseline projection will necessarily be realised.
Commodity Markets Are Becoming More Interconnected
The World Bank’s report also examines how price movements in one commodity market can influence others.
The institution found that links between commodity-price volatility become more pronounced during periods of economic and market stress, including since the start of the current Middle East conflict.
Industrial metals were identified as the largest average transmitters of volatility to other commodity groups, although oil’s role increased markedly after the conflict began.
These connections help explain why shocks in one market can spread beyond the original source.
For example, higher oil prices can increase the cost of producing and transporting fertilisers. More expensive fertilisers can raise farm production costs, which may then influence food prices.
Similarly, higher energy and metal prices can affect manufacturing, construction and infrastructure investment. Changes in these sectors may influence demand for other materials.
The relationships are not automatic or identical in every market. Inventories, contracts, alternative suppliers and government policies can reduce or delay the transmission of price changes.
Nevertheless, interconnected markets mean that a disruption affecting one major commodity can have wider consequences than its direct effect on that commodity alone.
The report’s analysis supports the need for policymakers to monitor a broad range of indicators, including energy supplies, transport conditions, agricultural production and industrial demand.
What Happens Next?
The commodity-price outlook will depend on developments in the Middle East, the condition of energy infrastructure, international shipping routes, agricultural weather patterns and global demand.
The World Bank expects overall commodity prices to ease by 7% in 2027 under its baseline scenario, but the extent of that decline will depend on whether supply conditions improve and the risks identified in the report are contained.
Governments will need to monitor the impact on inflation, public finances and food security. Businesses will need to assess their exposure to energy and input costs, while agricultural producers may need to adjust purchasing and production plans.
The World Bank’s financing instruments could help affected countries support vulnerable households and maintain economic activity, although access to and use of those resources will depend on the relevant arrangements.
For Nigeria, important indicators will include crude oil production and export receipts, domestic fuel costs, fertiliser availability, food supply, exchange-rate movements and the performance of agricultural production.
The next commodity-price updates and future revisions to the World Bank’s forecasts will help determine whether the projected price increases are materialising as expected.
Conclusion
The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook warns that global commodity prices are on course to rise by 23% in 2026 as conflict, shipping disruption, weather risks and demand pressures affect energy, food, metals and precious metals.
Energy prices are forecast to rise by 32%, food commodity prices by slightly more than 10% in 2026, metals by 25% and precious metals by 40%. Fertiliser prices are expected to increase by 14% this year.
Although the bank projects a 7% decline in overall commodity prices in 2027, the outlook remains vulnerable to further disruption. In a more severe scenario, oil and food prices could rise beyond the baseline forecasts, increasing the risk of inflation, food insecurity and weaker economic growth.
The report highlights the importance of preparing for external shocks, improving supply-chain resilience and protecting households most exposed to rising living costs.
For Nigeria and other developing economies, the effects will depend on the balance between export revenues, import costs, domestic production and the capacity of governments to respond.
The central message is that commodity prices are being shaped by several interconnected risks. Managing their effects will require careful monitoring, transparent economic policy and targeted measures that protect vulnerable households while supporting productive activity.
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